Module 5 Assignment: Increasing Returns

Increasing return is one of the forces that explains how technology can emerge (Thornburg, 2013). Increasing return is the process in which some technologies that are ahead continue to be ahead, while innovations that lose advantages keep losing them even more (Arthur, 1996). The competition between DVDs and video-on-demand, that has been in place since 2010, is an example of increasing return.

In the 1990s, it was common to have a wonderful collection of DVDs or rent them in Blockbuster. However, by the end of the the first decade of this century, physical DVD  became  highly unpopular. Blockbuster had began losing its customers and went bankrupt in 2010 (Satell, 2014). Netflix,  an online DVD store, replaced  Blockbuster: in 2011, the number of Netflix DVD subscribers reached 13.93 million. Nevertheless, when the Internet became widely accessible and more and more individuals preferred to watch movies online, the number of Netflix DVD subscribers went down to slightly over 380 thousand by the beginning of 2016 (Statista, 2016). Currently, DVD industry continuing losing its advantages while video-on-demand continues to be ahead.

The ability to get access to a movie immediately without waiting until the needed DVD arrives made video-on-demands widely spread. In 2012, the number of Netflix streaming videos subscribers was 25.1 million and reached 27.2 million by the beginning of 2016 (Statista, 2016). Netflix is just one of  numerous current websites that offers online movies. For example, I watched Star Trek (2009) on Amazon using our daughter’s Amazon Prime account that allows for streaming videos from the Web.

Thus, emerged physical DVDs became obsolete, were replaced by online DVDs, that are becoming obsolete now, being replaced by videos-on-demand. These processes, in accordance to McLuhan’s laws, occur simultaneously (Thornburg, 2013). Physical and online DVDs carried with it the seed of destruction “paving the way” for video-on-demand to follow.    

References

Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review,74(4), 100−109.

Satell, G. (2014). A Look Back at why Blockbuster Really Failed and why it didn’t have to. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2014/09/05/a-look-back-at-why-blockbuster-really-failed-and-why-it-didnt-have-to/

Statista. (2016). Number of Netflix DVD Subscribers in the US. Retrieved from http://www.statista.com/statistics/250940/quarterly-number-of-netflix-dvd-subscribers-in-the-us/

Thornburg, D. (2013c). Emerging technologies and McLuhan's laws of media. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Module 4 Assignment: Disruptive Technology

A disruptive technology is a technology that impacts and replaces a well-established technology and can create an entirely new technological industry (Thornburg, 2014). SixthSense technology can be an example of a disruptive technology. SixthSense is a wearable technology that allows for digital interaction in the physical world around us through hand gestures (Mistry, 2010). During his 2009 TED talk, Pranav Mistry presented only a prototype of SixthSense, however, OmniTouch (2011), Apple Watch (2015), and other wearable technologies became a reality (Quora, 2015).     

Modern wrist-wear SmartWatches tell time, work as a GPS, music player, health monitor, cell phones, and cameras (Wearable Technology, 2016). It has the potential to replace smart phones and some other similar devices. The social benefits of wearable technology can be especially seen in medicine. It would be highly valuable in monitoring a person’s health with wrist-ware watch and send an alert  directly to his/her doctor, when necessary. In education, wearable technology can be used if it allows to type, for example, a solution to a problem and sent it directly to the teacher.

 The wear technologies described above are still emerging. Perhaps they will be widely used during the next couple of years. However, we never know when another disruptive technology will replace it. 

References

Mistry, P. (2010). SixthSense: Integrating Information with Real World. Retrieved from http://www.pranavmistry.com/projects/sixthsense/

Quora. (2015). Sixth Sense (technology):What Happened to the SixthSense Project? Retrieved from https://www.quora.com/Sixth-Sense-technology/What-happened-to-the-SixthSense-project

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014). David Thornburg: Disruptive technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Wearable Technology. (2016). Retrieved from https://www.wearable-technologies.com/2016/01/touchone-interview/

Module 3 Assignment: Rhymes of History

Learning Management Systems

“Rhymes of history”, one of the forces that drive emerging technology, impact the development of a new technology or rekindle something from the past (Thornburg, 2014). Learning Management Systems, which provide the course materials and tests to students at any location, can be an example of technology that represents a rhyme of history. The first attempt of distance education occurred in 1728, when a British teacher mailed weekly lessons to their students. In 1840, Sir Isaac Pitman sent texts to his students and received their responses by mail. This innovation was the foundation for the development of correspondence courses in the UK (Hickey, 2014).

In 1924, Sidney Pressey invented the first teaching machine that could administer multiple choice questions. In 1929, LaZere invented a device that could provide a problem to a student and check whether the problem was solved correctly. SAKI, a teaching system that adjusted the difficulty of the questions based on the student’s performance, was invented in 1956. In 1960, The University of Illinois linked the computer terminals so that students could access the course materials and listen to the recorded lectures. This innovation evolved into the PLATO system, which allowed for the operation of thousands terminal across the planet. PLATO also had chart rooms, screen sharing, and message boards (Hickey, 2014).

In 1969, the U.S. Department of Defence developed APPANET, the precursor to the Internet. The first desck-top computer, introduced in 1970, and the World Wide Web, invented in 1989, made modern online learning possible. In 1990, the first LMS for the Macintosh platform was launched. The historical ideas described above were reflected in the further development of LMSs. Currently, most LMSs are hosted in the cloud and their further development is on the rise (Hickey, 2014).

References

Hickey, R. (2014). The History of Online Education. Retrieved from https://www.petersons.com/college-search/online-education-history.aspx

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014h). David Thornburg: Rhymes of history [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

 LMS. (n.d.). History of the LMS. Retrieved from https://www.mindflash.com/learning-management-systems/history-of-lms